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Tuesday, November 04, 2008

It's Finally Time...

...to take the only poll that really matters - time to go vote! I am watching TV (FoxNews, not that CNN channel or, God forbid, MSNBC) and some of the polling places are experiencing long lines. I doubt that will be the case here in Paris, TX. But I could be wrong.

Those of you who know me know how I think, politically. If you don't know me...why are you even reading this? {grins} Anyway, McCain isn't my favorite candidate - but he far outshines Obama. My most basic beef against Obama are his economic policies. When the economy is tanking, when unemployment starts to rise, when GDP actually shrinks (not by much, but it is shrinking) - in that kind of situation you most definitely do NOT raise taxes, and you especially don't raise taxes on the upper income levels. That is akin to pouring water in our gasoline-powered economic engine.

Look at history. President Hoover did much the same thing as Obama promises to do back in the 1920s. Due to Hoover's(and the Congress) actions, most economists agree that what would have been a fairly bad recession was transformed into the Great Depression.

The Obama supporter would argue that stealing money (uhh, I mean taxing money) from those who have more and giving it to those who don't doesn't harm the economic engine. The recipients will spend the money on buying things or whatever, so that money gets put back into the economy. Sounds logical, right?

Wrong. Dead wrong. There is a thing in economics called the multiplier effect. As money travels through the economy from consumer to supplier, from employer to employee, from employee (aka consumer) to whatever...anyway, as money flows, it runs the economic engine. The more "work" it does in the economy, the higher the multiplier effect. Now here's the thing: let's say you have an upper income person. He buys things as a consumer, sure. But he is also more likely to invest his money in various ways - which means the money from the rich dude travels through the economy in a more convolute way, which performs more economic work. Let's say he invests in stock - that money goes to a company which might then in turn build a new factory from investment money given by others. This creates new demand for suppliers to the factory for whatever raw materials they use. It also creates new jobs - which in turn furthers the money flowing from employees (consumers) to businesses that sell things. Or, the richer guy might decide to open a business of hs own. That also increases demand for supplies, and new jobs, which then means more money flowing into the economy from the new employees to whatever they spend money on. Or he might just stash it away in a CD, which gives banks funds to loan out, which could go into a new house for someone, or a new car, or a new business. The more that the money does, the greater the multiplier effect as it travels through the economy.

That was just a very simplified look at how money flows. Now, imagine Obama steps in and tells the upper income dude that he makes too much money - he doesn't need all of that, and so the Obama plan steals (sorry, I should use 'takes', but stealing almost seems more appropriate) money from the rich dude and gives to the poor dude. Now, the poor dude will spend the money on consumer goods, just like the rich guy. That gets the transferred money back into the economy, true. The problem is that when you reduce the money the richer peeps have to spend and give it to the poorer peeps, the multiplier effect is radically diminshed. That sounds harsh, but it's just a fact of life. The poorer peeps are far less likely to invest that money, whether in stocks, a new business, or in a bank, all of which means that the money taken from the rich guy and given to the poor guy travels less through the economy - the multiplier effect is lost. In effect, transferring wealth can actually severly impact the economy. This isn't a dig on poor people - not at all! It's just a brutally honest look at how our capitalist system works.

When the economy is in recession, you want your money doing as much work as it possibly can. Wealth transfer is a economic engine killer. Or at least it's a major slow-it-downer. And that is exactly what we don't need right now. Forget Republican/Democrat. Forget conservative/liberal. Forget black/white. Just from a purely economic perspective, Obama is a bad choice. And Obama with a Democrat supermajority in Congress - that spells economic disaster. And you all thought Jimmy Carter was bad! Just wait.

Obama is bad for another reason. The next president will likely get to pick at least two Supreme Court justices, if not more. We don't need a Supreme Court filled with activist judges who try to make law from the bench. We need a SC that makes judgements according to what the US Constitution says, not what they think the founders really meant. They told us what they meant - it's in the Constitution. Have you ever read the damned thing? (Sorry, I'm quoting a friend - an inside joke. Some of you will get it) I really like the part that says (paraphrasing here) : All powers not given to the Federal govt and not prohibited to the States are hereby reserved for the States. In other words, if it ain't given to the Feds, and it ain't denied to the States, then the States can do it.

The Founders did not intend for the United States to become a centrally dominated nation like it is becoming. In fact, for a long time, the country was referred to collectively as "THESE United States". No, the states weren't meant to be sovereign - the Constitution is clear on that. But when you read the writings of the founders, you realize that they saw the states as individual laboratories of democracy. States would do different things, and some would work and some wouldn't. And then the other states could copy the effective ideas, or not. Anyway, that's not my point. I am simply saying that we need a SC that doesn't reinterpret the Constitution to make it say things that the Founders didn't put in there. I believe Obama would appoint activist judges - the absolute last thing we need. Of course, we've all heard Obama talking about how the SC, during the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s, didn't venture into the wealth redistribution territory due to the restrictions placed upon it by the Constitution. Which one might take to mean that Obama thinks those constitutional restrictions should be changed.

(shakes head violently in amazement, makes a goofy wuuuhhh??? sound)

Obama wants to move America further down the road to socialism. Economically, that dog won't hunt. (Translation for the non-country people: Economically, socialism doesn't work). It's possible to transform a nation with socialist policies (see Europe, etc) but socialism tends to ramp down the economic engine considerably. Obama wants to move us closer to socialism - that much is certain. He also implied that the Constitutional restrictions on the SC are obstacles that we might be better off doing away with. My point is that, on these two fronts, Obama stands poined to begin a transformation of America as we know it into something else. I seriously doubt the doomsayers who claim that an Obama presidency will destroy America. One man can't do that, I don't think. But I absolutely think that Obama can weaken our nation economically, and also stack the SC deck with activist juddges, which would allow even greater changes from the America we know in the coming decades.

America became a great nation because of (well, for several reasons) our guaranteed freedoms - free speech, private property rights, religion protected from interference from the state, just to name a few. We've also made some serious blunders. Slavery, limitations of liberties for minorities and women, the screwing over we did to the Native Americans again and again, Japanese internment camps, and much more. However, the cool thing about America is that we tend to correct our mistakes. Slavery - gone. The effects of slavery and how it affects blacks today - we're still working on that one. Anyone, regardless of race or sex, can vote (if they're 18). The Indians...well, that's one I don't think we can ever really make amends for. (Gee, sorry for taking your entire land...but we'll let you build casinos and take the white man's money! That will make things right. Yeah, sure)

My point is that America tends to correct itself. And since our inception, we've been a beacon of freedom and liberty as immigrants poured into our country, helping to build our nation. We tend to forget that today, I think. Yes, I know that the illegal immigrants are a problem - but I don't think the answer is to deport them all. Economically, that dog won't hunt. But just from a compassionate viewpoint - sending them all packing would be a 21st century version of the Trail Of Tears. Yes, they broke the law. There is no denying that. But I don't think Jesus would want us to just boot them out - what would Jesus do in this situation? Get back to me with that answer.

Where was I? Oh yeah, America, through the late 19th century and through most of the 20th, was a shining beacon of light, of hope - of freedom! I think we've begun to lose our way, however. It's not permanent yet. But I think an Obama presidency will have lasting detrimental effects on the very nature of what it means to be American. We could be looking at the beginning of the end of the American Era in world history. Rome didn't collapse in a day - neither will we. But the similarities are striking: society sliding into decadence, high taxes, a spread out military force that required even more taxation, just to name a few things. I don't think America will end after Obama's inauguration - that's just silly. But we could very well be the generation that sees the greatness of America begin to diminish - not just because of Obama. I don't think he's an evil man. I truly believe he's sincere in his views, and I think he believes his ideas are good for America. I also think he's dead wrong on that. But Barack Obama is not an evil man.

Something I was discussing with a friend of mine during our regular Friday 6 AM bible study (formerly at Starbucks, now at Paris Coffee). I just threw out a scenario to Marc. (Warning: those of you who aren't a believer in Christ may not get this part - that's okay). Obama wins. He pulls us out of Iraq. Iraq isn't stable yet - and Iran is licking its chops even as we speak. Russia needs allies - and the best way to get allies in that neck of the woods is to be against Israel. Somehow, Russia and several Islamic nations come agains Israel. We would be obligated to respond. Where it goes from there, I would rather not think about.

That was just a thought exercise - I don't believe that is going to happen, or at least not anytime soon (Ezekiel 39-39!!!). Here's the thing: there is virtually no mention of America in the Bible, as far as anyone can tell. Oh, some peeps want to make a connection between America and the "young lions of Tarshish" but I think it's a pretty big stretch to say that's a reference to America. Anyway, America's lack of mention in the endtimes prophecy is interesting. You'd think a superpower would at least come up once, right? The lack of mention of America makes me think that either we have become weak militarily and economically (we're heading that way for dang dure!) by the time these prophecies start to unwind, or perhaps we've been attacked and lost, or any number of things that would diminish America's standing in the world. Here's my point (you were starting to think was just rambling, weren't you? You might be right, lol). I believe that God is firmly in control of world events. Ain't nothing gonna happen that would take Him by surprise. In other words, God never has a wtf moment. If He wants America to start down the road to socialism, then guess what? We're going to go down that path. If God wants McCain to win, guess what? McCain will win. If we get nuked tomorrow, guess what? God is in control. And ultimately, God wins over the forces of evil. No worries there.

So whatever happens today as far as the election goes, just remember: God is in control. Whoever becomes president must answer to God - nobody is above Him, ha ha. And although an Obama presidency is like fingernails on a chalkboard to my libertarian beliefs, guess what? If Obama is elected, then he is my president. That's what the Constitution says.

I just kinda read over this whole post - and yeah, I did kinda ramble. No proofing, though, except for spelling. I write pretty much stream-of-consciousness, so what you read is pretty much what was running through my mind. And THAT is a scary thought. No polishing, no prettying it up. Just raw political, philsophical, and prophetic thought.

And now...it's time to go vote. Excuse me.


15 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's amazing the diversity of perspectives I've learned about in the past few weeks. Today has been a bit of a firestorm of opinions.

On the rich/poor thing. . . I think the problem is, if you make less than $75k a year ($200k for families) these days, you're probably poor. It's hard to afford a house, car, retirement etc in most places without that much money.

How many people make that much or more? Eeek--not many. I do think there's something wrong in a country where two working parents can't support a family. It's starting to get that way.

Do you think God cares about economics? I know some people do, but I always figured God was above that kind of thing. Hmm. . .

Personally, I wish we could all just do the peace/love thing. It makes me sad to see all the pain that comes from the way we tend to live life.

Well, whatever happens, we'll all muddle through somehow.

Bring on the night.

Anonymous said...

BTW, I am totally impressed by the length and depth of your post--that is some serious dedication.

I get way too rambley on my responses. I need to work on that.

Robin said...

There are so many things I could comment on here. Not sure where to start.

homer4k said...

Heather - believe it or not, but this was just supposed to be a simple post about me voting today, along with lots of other peeps. It transformed from an almost Twitter-worthy post (meaning short and to the point) to the exact opposite (overwordy and rambling from idea to idea). I don't organize my thoughts well - I just let them floooooooooooooooooowwwwww onto the screen. It's messy sometimes.

One cool thing regarding politics is that, appearances to the contrary, I realize that sometimes, in some very very very rare instances, with a probability approaching 1 x 10^19 to 1 (is the nerdiness showing yet?) that I might actually be wrong about something. Not often, but it happens. So I enjoy talking about all the political stuff with peeps, especially the ones who disagree. You never know - I might actually learn something from someone else.

DANG! I just thought of something else I should have included in my rant: the return of the Fairness Doctrine. My fingers are tired, though, and Vista's speech recognition is somewhat..uh..flawed? I tried using it to dictate a few times - the results weren't good, but sometimes funny.

Hmm, now who's the one who rambles in their replies? lol


Robin - feel free to just jump in! How about this: some peeps feel that your state is THE single most important contest in this election cycle. What do you think?

Reply over - carry on.

Robin said...

Early exit polls are showing my state to be way in favor of Obama. No one should trust exit polls though.

I think all the swing states are key. Can McCain win without winning almost all of them?

But like you said, God is sovereign over this (might I add that you sounding a tad Calvinistic?). :)

homer4k said...

Robin - for some reason, Dems are more likely to respond to exit polls than Reps. I don't know why, but that is what "they" say. That might tend to skew results.

RCP is showing your state to be too close to call. Detailed polls show Obama is ahead, but by 3-7 points depending on the poll. That;s not a huge spread, especially when you factor in the margin of error. I don't recall alot from statistics, but it has something to do with standard deviation, right? Sad that I kinda remember that.

As a good friend of mine said, it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. The fat lady is warming up her voice - she's about to step out on the stage - but she ain't singin' yet.

As for turning Calvinistic (sounds like some bizarre political philosophy when you say it that way lol) - I have no problem acknowledging the sovereignty of God. I think our free will is also involved somehow in questions of salvation, but God knows who is saved and who isn't. Whether you're a Calvinist or an Arminian is irrelevant - the only thing that matters is Jesus Christ, and Him crucified, and what you do with that information. Anything else is not essential to my salvation (a saying of Mr. Henry Thielman - and a very useful one).

But you know what? I don't know everything (shudders violently in denial) - but i am looking forward to learning all the answers someday. Until then, we just press on. And when things look bleak, I will just remember that yes, God is in control, and nothing happens here on Earth that is capable of thwarting His plan. We may try, but it just ain't gonna happen.

And who knows - maybe McCain would make a lousy president. Maybe he'll lose his temper (he's prone to doing that, they say) and when the ambassador from some way out there country just looks at him the wrong way, he might issue the launch codes. Now that would put a kink in your day.

All I know now is that I plan on staying up late following all the returns. As someone else said in a previous comment :) bring on the night!

Anonymous said...

Yes, there will be many red-eyed, sleepy folks heading into work tomorrow. Especially on the east coast, where we have to stay up extra late!

Eek, Calvinism. Flashbacks to my childhood. I'd love to hear your ideas on the Second Testament sometime. I always interpreted it as a recording of the changes brought about by Jesus. God is love. A deviation from First Testament brimstone. But a lot of Christians seem to go back and forth between these perspectives, which I find confusing.

homer4k said...

@Heather - I checked this right before I was going to leave for another latte, but this comment made me laugh. Politics and religion are 2 of the 3 things you aren't supposed to talk about. How you could bring the 3rd thing into this...I'm not sure.

Without going into another Megapost, there are lots of peeps who see the Old (or First) Testament as Mean, Wrathful God and the New (or Second) Testament as being all about love - Jesus is so nice to everyone, love love love. (I'm being a little facetious, of course).

I don't see it that way at all. BTW, I am intrigued by your use of First and Second instead of Old and New. Any reason behind that, or do you just like to be different? I can understand that for sure!

Anyway, the Old testament is full of examples of God's love for us, and His mercy. And the New Testament has lots of fire and brimstone - anyone who thinks it's all Jesus Is Love apparently hasn't read Revelations. But without going into detail (I need to get going to Paris Coffee before they close, ha ha) I see Jesus in the New Testament as a fulfillment of the Old Testament. You can't have one without the other - I try to take the Bible as a whole document, rather than a Part 1 and Part 2. That's my take (short version).

brb

Anonymous said...

Different? Me? Nooooo! ;)

Yes, I was thinking the same thing--politics & religion as big no-nos. But I figured I'm just asking for your perspective, as I don't have a solid ideas on this (other than what's been pre-loaded ;). Was just interested in your interpretation knowing you're into this.

homer4k said...

Heather - when all the election hooplah is done, I'll give you the long version of my take on things. Do you want the 10 page version or the full, unabridged 53 page version? lol

Anonymous said...

Ummmm. . . . Do you have a PowerPoint? ;)

Robin said...

Oh my...that Calvinist comment was just a joke. I didn't mean to open up a can of worms :)

Also, I believe in free will, although I think you and I might have a slightly different take on it. That's a conversation for another day though probably.

homer4k said...

Heather - Powerpoint, no. I use OpenOffice for presentations. I like the whole open source thing - makes me feel like a rebel. That's why I use Firefox instead of IE.

Robin - I knew it was a joke, but I like discussing controversial things. In fact, at our regular Tuesday night Bible study (not meeting tonight - the election takes precedence over God, I suppose) I was discussing politics with Robert, a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat before we got started. Now, the thing about some of the people around here that are Democrats (or liberals in general here) is that they just accept the worldview spoon-fed to them by the media. When I began questioning Robert on certain issues (actually it was in reference to the bailout and why exactly did all that bank stuff happen), Robert said that as usual, it was the Evil Greedy Bankers, the Wall Street Fat Cats who were are fault.

Well said - there is certainly blame to be placed there. But I challenged him about the role of government (specifically how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were pressured to make less desirable loans by certain peeps in govt) in the banking crisis. He started to get a little defensive - after all, to your run-of-the mill liberal, government is the solution to many problems. But he got pretty upset when I kept on and put some of the blame on the people getting the loans - gee, I know there's no way i can afford this $400,000 house, but this banker dude says I can, so I will believe him and not use any common sense and gimme the papers to sign!

Anyway, Robert finally exclaimed "BS!" although he didn't use initials, lol. And everyone started laughing because generally speaking, you aren't supposed to cuss during Bible study.

That reminds me of something. One of my coworkers several years ago came by to ask me something. I was at lunch and reading the bible. Anyway, Jim walks up to me and says something including a few cuss words - nothing horrible, but still cussing. He then saw my open Bible and his eyes got so big - "If I'd known you had your Bible out, I wouldn't have said that!"

What difference does it make whether the Bible is out and open or not? That's what I asked him anyway, when I stopped laughing.

Where was I? Dang, I forgot. Oh yeah - Calvinism, Arminianism, etc. I would like a discussion sometime - but not now, lol. Too much going on - I can barely make myself spellcheck right now!

Anonymous said...

There are probably fork-users and bottle feeders among both parties.

I was just teasing about the .ppt. Maybe it's only funny to humanities types who work with business people. :) But word to your technologicalantidisestablishmentarianism.

Anonymous said...

Don't look it up. :P It's nonsense. :)